The 12-Day War: A Global Energy Crisis and the "Shadow" Leadership of Iran

The Middle East is currently gripped by the most intense military confrontation in decades. What began on February 28, 2026, as a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran—codenamed Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel—has now entered its 12th day, fundamentally reshaping global geopolitics and energy security.

1. The Brink of Total War: Military Updates

The conflict has expanded rapidly beyond the borders of Iran and Israel.

• Intense Air Campaign: The Pentagon described the last 12 hours as the most intense period of strikes since the war began. Over 10,000 civilian sites in Iran have reportedly been hit, including thousands of homes and dozens of schools.
• Retaliatory Strikes: Iran has responded with "Operation True Promise IV," launching strategic missiles like the Fattah and Khaibar at Israeli cities including Tel Aviv and Haifa.
• Regional Spillover: Attacks have been reported across the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait all intercepting Iranian drones and missiles targeting critical infrastructure.

2. The Mystery of Mojtaba Khamenei

Following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, his son, 

Mojtaba Khamenei

, was appointed as the new Supreme Leader on March 8.

• A Leader in the Shadows: Despite his appointment, 
  Mojtaba
   has not been seen in public. Reports from The Jerusalem Post suggest he may have been wounded in earlier strikes but remains "functional".
• U.S. Stance: President Donald Trump has labeled the new leader "unacceptable" and a "lightweight," warning that his tenure "won't last long".

3. The Economic "Self-Inflicted Wound"

The virtual closure of the 

Strait of Hormuz

 has triggered a global economic shock.

• Energy Prices: Brent crude prices surged to over $110 per barrel before cooling slightly to $88 today following a proposal by the International Energy Agency for a historic 182-million-barrel reserve release.

• Supply Chain Disruptions: Approximately 20% of global oil and 25% of seaborne oil trade is currently at a standstill.
• India's Response: While Indian officials like Piyush Goyal have assured citizens there is "no shortage of fuel," Air India and other carriers have already hiked fuel surcharges.

4. Diplomatic Deadlock

Diplomatic efforts are struggling to keep pace with the military escalation.

• Refusal to Talk: Israel has rejected Lebanese requests for a ceasefire, insisting on negotiations only "under fire".
• Global Alliances: While North Korea and Russia have denounced the U.S.-Israeli strikes, European allies like France have expressed concerns over the lack of a clear "exit strategy".

Conclusion: As the war enters its second week, the focus remains on whether the international community can secure the 

Strait of Hormuz

 or if the conflict will spiral into a permanent regional reshuffle.